As the world gains a better understanding of the “tricky little virus,” we can start to measure the damage that has been done. Damage not just from the virus itself, but also how each country’s government’s response went in both slowing down the spread and how their decision to lock down will pan out for the livelihood of their occupants.
Not so long ago Ardern “did a little dance,” gave herself a pat on the back and is lauded as the virus killer. With New Zealand registering 26 deaths, every one thinks she is amazing and we are the best. Even though there are plenty of countries that did better, but let us pretend for a minute that our Government did amazeballs and they saved us from Shaun Hendy’s 80,000 deaths.
Interestingly the choice to go hard go early style lockdown versus go late and easy lockdowns had virtually no difference overall.
A study done by comparing the two options in 24 European countries linked below starts with the following Abstract
I explore the association between the severity of lockdown policies in the first half of 2020 and mortality rates. Using two indices from the Blavatnik Centre’s COVID-19 policy measures and comparing weekly mortality rates from 24 European countries in the first halves of 2017–2020, addressing policy endogeneity in two different ways, and taking timing into account, I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development.Christian Bjornskov
The graph below shows the deaths per million between easy lockdowns and hard ones
This is also true for for Florida versus other states in the U.S.
And Sweden versus the E.U. linked below
look at Brazil versus Peru, the latter having an early a severe lockdown versus Brazils slow and easy approach
And if we compare New Zealand and Singapore with their success with a lockdown to Taiwan with its even better success with no lockdown it is easy to see that the merits of lockdowns are not easy to make an argument for.
What is more measurable though is the affects of lockdowns on economies. This is where we can see how the lockdown will affect us all long term.
How is this claim of NZ responding well to the virus economically, that our Finance Minister Grant Robertson keeps telling us
Would it surprise you that the answer is not only, not so good. It is so bad that the following statement has just been made about our lockdown decision .
“In contrast, lockdowns have caused unprecedented social and economic devastation, destroying hundreds of millions of livelihoods worldwide, according to official estimates. In sub-Saharan Africa, the increase in deaths from malaria and tuberculosis each exceeds the total number of covid deaths. Interestingly, if one takes into account both GDP loss and new public debt, New Zealand is one of the worst affected countries in the world.”
Yep, One of the worst!
“Effective government response to COVID-19 doesn’t necessarily correlate with economic gain. In general, the connection between economic growth and pandemic performance is weaker once one accounts for the contribution of the stimulus. No wonder New Zealand only talks about GDP…”
Economists have for years been able to attribute quality of life with life longevity and health. It doesn’t take a genius to work out the health of a county’s economy has a direct link to issues such as child mortality (or poverty for that matter Jacinda) and other health issues.
More money equals better health care, better education, better provisions for the less able better all round. The fall out of our financial position is showing very clearly that our death toll from the lockdown will ultimately make NZ one the worst hit countries.
We have been saying this since the lockdown began, but it has fallen on so many deaf ears. Well deaf ears, and the 62% of you Kiwi’s thinking Ardern saved the day. You have seen nothing yet.
Might be time to learn Mandarin as what I am hearing on the grape vine is not good at all. Aussie owned banks pulling out, debt being sold to China and bam, the Taniwha is now another one of China’s dragon’s
Not sure National would have done any different given we have used Chinas cash well before Ardern and her handbag of a Finance Minister came on the scene.
The question is what do we do next….