Over the next week I am going to debunk the claims made by the alarmists with real climate science.
Today NZ, or more importantly our virtue signalling politicians, have started the journey of costing the economy, the tax payer and ultimately the welfare of 1.000’s of people with steps to solve a problem that (a) doesn’t exist and (b) if it did NZ is in no way able to solve.
We are talking about the climate emergency, which is nothing more than Ardern trying to look good on a global stage.
Before you switch off and cry “Climate Denier” lets look at the facts that we know about with what is going on with this theory of anthropogenic caused Co2 is a problem.
Episode 1. Global Warming
Firstly, the climate is an enormously complex system. Much of the interactions that have effects on our climate are not fully understood. This includes the role of C02 and methane as green house gases in comparison to water in the atmosphere and as it relates to the gradual warming we have witnessed in the past 40 years.
There is a reason I mention 40 years which i will explain as we go through the information
The reality with technology and the time frames we are dealing with in the temperature records are important. As we have evolved better means of measuring temperature data, it means there is a large changes in how we have been able to determine what the global temperatures actually were and are currently. Naturally the further back in time we go, the greater the guess work involved.
By far the most reliable data is the record from 1979 to current time, published by the university of Alabama Huntsville. This is measured from the outer atmosphere with the use of the weather satellite’s. The satellites give us a true global picture of temperature and other aspects of climate such as storm intensity etc. Below is the latest graph which shows we have been warming at a rate of on average 0.1 of a degree Celsius per decade.
This graph shows a short period of time where we can clearly see a gradual warming trend and a typical variation of plus or minus of 0.2 to 0.4 of a degree off the 30 year average of 1991 to 2020. The below version shows the rolling 13 month average. Note that we are today at the same temperature for April as in 1980. this will be relevant when looking at other temperature graphs from people who intend to alarm you.
Prior to the above temperature record, we get into land based records. Weather/temperature recording stations all around the globe are our only physical record of the temperature prior to 1979. Some areas are better covered than others around the globe, with the longest accurate data being from the USA records and then Europe.
There are some challenges with the ground based measurements versus the the satellite data which are as follows.
- The stations are subject to temperature interference due to their locations such as those close to cities or at airports where they are often located. As cities grow, interference on the thermometers can occur. Heat build up from large buildings and the sun warming up roads etc create more warmth than grassy plain for example. This is called the Urban Heat Island Effect. Location such as airports have also got some unusual variations that are caused from things such as exhaust fumes from aeroplanes or heat from tarmac.
- Accuracy of data sharing and quality of recording. A truly global temperature record requires accurate recording of temperatures from many different regions around the world. given the geopolitical landscape from 1900 to 1979 with realities of the cold war, world war I and II and a number of other challenges mean that much of the data for the 100 years prior to 1979 is only going to be at best an educated estimate.
- Decreasing number of accurate recordings stations the further back in history you go also increases that likely hood that we are at best only estimating the real global temperature.
here is a video showing how many weather stations were around the globe from 1880 to 2007, you can see from this why the U.S. weather data is so important.
As you can see there are a lot of large gaps in this global data, which is then open to scientists to fill in those gaps the best way they can. Unfortunately the best way for the scientist doesn’t always mean the most accurate depiction of the data.
It is in the interest of scientists and their employers, that rely on grants from Governments or Governmental organisations, to show a trend that secures their grants. This trend invariably needs to show warming to secure the funds they need to continue there work.
While you will often hear of people claiming that scientists who announce that there is no climate emergency are bought and paid for by the oil industry (and in some cases there will be scientist who are on the oil companies pay roll), Ironically, it is the ones claiming there is an emergency who are the ones more reliant on the climate emergency theory for their pay.
There are countless stories of scientists whom break the narrative of the climate emergency being bullied, silenced or even fired for dating to argue the Co2 climate emergency point.
In reality most of the scientists that are claiming there is no emergency are scientists who have been on the IPCC panel, work at universities as professors or are retired and no longer need the funding that this multi billion dollar movement provides. Watch the short video below of Dr Judith Curry testify in congress about her treatment when she broke rank at the IPCC.
But back to these records pre 1979 records, even with all the best intensions you can see that it is difficult to claim you have global data for a long period of time from the above weather station video clip.
This image below is the sort of graph that is used to create an image of emergency. Note that in the Satellite data above, the temperature in April 2021 is the same as the temperature in April 1983, early 1981 and cooler than that of April 2015. So, how do they get the graph to show such a increasing trend as in the one below.
If you go back to the USA data then you will find that the raw data from NOAA in the USA has the 1930’s as the warmest year with a cooling to 1980 and then a warming again. The data is then manipulated or as they say “adjusted” to show a different trend (more on this shortly)
The argument with many scientists is that the trends seem more linked to the natural variability of the globe rather than CO2 and in fact that Co2 is actually beneficial to the globe. But natural variability and Co2’s benefits do not get you a grant from a government agency.
Watch the short video below from one of the co-founders of Greenpeace (one of the few who has PhD and one in ecology to boot) it is on his thoughts on Co2
What is forgotten in this day in age is the importance of Co2 and how low the concentration is of this vital element. so lets delve a little more into how it is meant to be warming the planet and the science behind its effect.
The greenhouse gasses reduce the departure of heat from our planet. They all absorb some wavelengths of Infra red light which then remains in the atmosphere. We all have experiences the cooler morning when there is no clouds in the sky versus a warmer morning if clouds have remained above us all night. This is the greenhouse effect in action that we have experienced, by far the most predominant green house gas is water.
Below is the wavelengths of infrared (heat) that the different greenhouse gasses absorb
below is a video that explains the reality of the absorption rates of the major greenhouse gasses
The reason that this information is the starting point is that the Co2 argument started with global warming. The fact that we are spending huge amounts to stop this mythical value of 1.5 degrees above some other value that we aren’t even 100% certain of is ludicrous.
There is so much more we can discuss around Co2 effect on warming and If you want to delve deeper into it this longer presentation below is a must watch from the scientist who knows more about Co2 than any other.
Next we will discuss extreme weather and sea level rise