Dr Skegg said on day 1 of this pandemic that we need to go for elimination. This was a ambitious statement to make at such an early stage of a pandemic. One that could have survived the test of time, if we hadn’t received several waves of infections and the now more transmissible Delta Variant.
I too thought that the pandemic was a storm in a teacup, to be honest its now more like a turd that just wont flush. But I admit, I thought it wouldn’t reach the level it has now evolved into.
What I did there, is admit my first assessment was incorrect. I changed my hypothesis and used the data to evolve a better understanding. Like all scientific knowledge evolves, you change tack and try a new way of solving a problem when your first hypothesis is incorrect.
But like politicians, our vocal scientists who wanted to grab the limelight in the early days of the pandemic, admitting that they may have got something wrong is just not in their vocabulary. They sold their educated guess snake oil and now are to proud to admit they were wrong.
There may be more reasons they remain silent here. In so many areas of public health and global scientific influence, scientists are told to leave the scientific method at the door. They are then sternly informed by the ruling elite as to exactly what science they are to produce for distrabution.
I am dumfounded at the effort going into propaganda during this pandemic. Perhaps some think that hiding the truth is a good idea for all of our benefits. But are our health teams really up for the job of making one decision for the good of all..
Until they can swallow some humble pie, admit they are wrong and take us through what they learned from there early mistakes. We are going to face an increasingly dark future while people cling on to the righteous façade of always being right.
Shaun Hendy predicted 80,000 deaths with his modelling. Why wont he own this? Good on him for having a crack. He won a prize from the Prime Minister for his efforts. 10 out of 10 for the propaganda and minus several million for the science.
Siouxsie Wiles liked to debunk people with her short videos and blazing hair. Remember her debunking that PCR tests weren’t very accurate. Seems a lovely Dr. Sam was quite knowledgeable about PCR testing showing false positives and Ms Wiles set about debunking this uppity Dr, Sam. That is until the WHO said that PCR tests are not accurate and are giving false positive results – Ms Wiles quietly deleted her fact checking video.
Michael Baker, like his counterpart Skegg, just want to lock us down till it all goes away. Having a diploma in public health probably means burying your head in the sand is a smart move. But Michael “where’s the cameras Baker AKA New Zealands leading epidemiologist doesnt buury his head in the sand. he wants all of us to do it.
Just admit you were wrong and start again FFS
Here is a link to a video of Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis. Stanford Professor of Epidemiology, Medicine and Population Health.
In his first few moments he explains just how easy it is to be wrong, how many advisors you need from the sciences to be advised properly on how to manage the virus and states that many scientists just got it wrong, including himself. This is the most cited epidemiologist in the world. a multi PHD scientist admitting he is wrong and Our Leading epidemiologist with a diploma in public health just cant do it can he.
I bet if any of our local press dared ask our scientific team if they think they got anything wrong, what would they say?
Michael Baker happily says everyone else has got it wrong, but not himself. He published his first paper on Covid-19 on 3 April, 2020.
It was wrong. He was wrong about the amount of infections each infected person would pass on. His Ro number was 2.5. This means every person who caught it would spread it to another 2 to 3 people. Bare in mind an Ro number over 1 is bad, over 2 significantly worse. It actually ended up being 0.7 – to 0.9.
He predicted it had the ability to infect 60% of the worlds population with a 1% fatality rate in the general population. With an ever higher amount for the elderly. Again completely off the mark. Apart from the 60% part
Between February and August 147,612 unvaccinated hospitalisations resulted in 48 deaths in the UK from the delta variant. This is based on their latest NHS report. That is for the under 50’s but represents a fatality rate of 0.0003. If we add the over 50 unvaccinated into the mix we get a fatality rate of 0.0016. That is 0.16% or a 99.84% survival rate, and that’s of people who required hospitalisation. This doesn’t count all those with a snively nose that didn’t bother going to hospital. That is why it has actually a 99.99% survivability rate. Lock downs have a worse survivability rate than that
If 60% of the worlds population has received an infection (it is now predicted that 3 Billion people have now been infected), and he looks like he actually got this one right here. This would mean that Baker should be witness to his prediction having wiped out 30,000,000 people. but this is not what happened. and countries that locked down did no better than countries that didn’t. the same can be said with masks.
Interestingly Baker made a computer model prediction that 14,400 New Zealander’s could die and thousands more would swamp our hospitals which would prevent the delivery of elective surgery and preventative care.
So with all this knowledge from the first of his 25 peer reviewed papers and over 2,000 interviews he convinced us to lock down. Okay, if he was right then great lets save everyone by stopping their lively hoods. but he wasn’t was he? none of his early predictions that made him convince Ardern to lock us down are anywhere near valid.
Sweden’s epidemiologist Anders Tegnell took a different view. No lock downs, no masks, no closing down the economy. He got given plenty of grief over this decision as a large number of aged care residents manged to get infected and perish . He admitted he could have done better. Time now shows us he had the best approach. Sweden has a better survival rates than most other European countries, including those who adopted strict lock downs.
Ironically Sweden hit 14,400 deaths before getting the virus under control. They have a virtually zero death rate now, but did lose 13,056 aged people over the age of 70 with the strategy.
Every death is a tragedy but the likes of Michael Baker know our health officials make life or death decisions every day. They know they cant save everybody and make decisions based on the best overall result. Even decisions are made that aren’t life or death are made that seem unfair to some. if you are of a certain age you may not qualify for a hip replacement as you wont have enough years left to enjoy it.
But back to the pride thing. Its okay to admit you got it wrong. regroup rethink, get advice and formulate a better plan. Not the same one you thought up when we were all going to die.
we can not lock down our way through the next few years Skegg. you will divide the country. you will cause unrest, anger and distrust.
its time to seek help.