UK Omicron predictions

The Modellers have been hard at it and made some predictions that have predictably put the UK authorities on high alert.

Boris, fresh of his Christmas party caper, is warning the UK punters that their vaccines are useless and to prepare for mRNA and high case numbers. I can imagine there are a few people slightly more than miffed at this reality.

So what are the modellers predicting?

We have a best case and worst case which we don’t have too long to wait to see if they get it right or wrong as these predictions cover the time period from December 1 through April 30.

Best case is:

Infections 20.9 million

Hospitalisations 175,000

Death 24,700

Flip side is the worst case which is:

Infections 34.2 million

Hospitalisations 492,000

Death 74,900

These predictions are from the London School of Tropical Medicine. The best case is if the mRNA booster shots work well and there is little escape from the current vaccine.

I am going to make a call that this is total BS. Or they know that the vaccine has disarmed the immunity of the willing population.

Real life data shows us that these scenarios are unlikely but as we know modellers are prone to exageration.

Never go fishing with a computer modeller, you are likely to catch nothing, have a boring time and then have to back up their story about how big the one that got away was.

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