At what point does Shaun Hendy give up computer modelling for COVID-19?
For once I agree with Ardern, even though I would describe it a little differently to “Models are imperfect beasts.”
Something like tits on a beef sandwich come to mind as being something infinitely more useful.
Shaun Hendy has calculated that at a 75% vaccination rate, that we would likely get 7,000 deaths in a 12 month period.
Once again modelling proves that real life and the mind of a computer modeller are so far removed from each other, that they would need a vaccine passport to come close to being in the same room.
Its a classic case of a little knowledge is dangerous. Hendy may have a great brain for programming or theoretical engineering. however, like other theoretical engineers they branch off into working in fields that their knowledge becomes about as useful as a useful idiot.
Computer modelling climate change is possibly more difficult than modelling for epidemiological purposes, but either way, they obviously don’t have anywhere near the ability to input enough logic to give a logical answer.
lets look at death rates that have occurred pre and post vaccination roll out to see what has happened in the real world. You should try it Shaun.
Its been over 18 months since the virus started claiming lives. In this 18 months there has been only 5 countries with around our population or less that have had more than 7,000 deaths in 18 months, let alone 12 months.
- Slovakia 9,877 in first 12 months, total 12,589 leaving 2,712 deaths since then
- Georgia 3,811 in first 12 months, total 8668 leaving 4,857 deaths since then
- Bosnia 6,005 in first 12 months, total 10,353 leaving 4,348 deaths since then
- Croatia 5773 in first 12 months total 8,539 leaving 2,766 deaths since then
- Panama 5987 in first 12 months, total 7,183 leaving 1,196 deaths since then
Slovakia has 41% of the population fully vaccinated and a little more have received at least one shot, they have had 87 deaths in past three months
Georgia has less than 20% fully vaccinated and a quarter of the population have received at least one shot, they have had 3,465 die in past three months
Bosnia has less than 20% of the population that has received their first vaccine shot and 12% that are fully vaccinated and have had 705 deaths is the past three months.
Croatia has 43% fully vaccinated and has had 365 deaths in the past three months
Panama has 68 % that have received one shot and half the population fully vaccinated and have had 700 deaths in past three months.
The UK has a little under 70% fully vaccinated and has had 7,577 deaths in 3 months. So are we to have a quarter of the deaths that the UK has had with a population 136 times smaller, while having a higher vaccination rate?
This model would suggest that the UK should be having 239,127 deaths in the next 12 months and 2,049,660 hospitalisations.
Remember the UK has been living since early July in freedom from COVID restrictions such as lockdowns and closed pubs clubs and restaurants.
So only one country is tracking to have more than 7,000 deaths in 12 months. It is a rather sorry state of affairs in Georgia with their death rate accelerating.
Models have their place but Hendy can insert his where the sun dont shine and then spend the next few hours working it out with a pencil