Fear and Loathing in Statistics

Today I have been churning through the weeks 32 to 37 of the NHS technical reporting on COVID deaths in England.

Predicting what may occur in NZ, with the data coming from a country that has almost reached 70% double jabbed.

Numerically speaking by far more vaccinated people are dying from the disease, but as we are not dealing with numerical equality when it comes to the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated, this is a statistic that really needs to be ignored.

There is good news in the numbers. The vaccine definitely is reducing the severity of the virus if we take a worst case scenario, being death. The numbers however, are very mixed when we look at hospitalizations. Also the technical reporting doesn’t go any where near discussing the adverse reactions aspect. Which also has a worst case scenario of the same swift kick to the bucket.

So what have we learned today?

If you are under the age of 70, but older than 60, you have the chance of 22 in 1000,000,in any given week, of being a COVID death statistic. 11 vaccinated people in 100,000 and 22 out of 100,000 unvaccinated, statistically end up as a statistic. Even more if you count Covid as a mere mention on a death certificate. Seems it is not just who you know, but also what you didn’t know that gets you into this club

The younger you get the better you fare as we all knew.

looking at it from a propagandist eye, and whilst 11 is half of 22, we could say you are twice as likely to die of COVID-19 if you are unvaccinated, technically this is true. But 22 or 11 out 100,000 are both such small numbers in the big scheme of things its like saying you could have got another gallon out of your tank if drove every where at 25 kp/h .

But depending on how you read the numbers and how you extrapolate them, you can come up with any amount of scenarios. I feel like Shaun Hendy after a bottle of wine and another day of being ignored by the NZ Herald. At one point I arrived at over 16,000 deaths, but not being angry at the world, I recalculated.

The cost of opening up versus loss of life is the game our politicians are struggling to decide on. One that that I might point out that Kiwis are finally waking up to. Remember the days of “ANY LIFE IS TOO MANY!”………….yeah crickets

I have done my calculation on if we get to 70% and then some calculations on better numbers again

We will lose in the next 12 months at a 70% vaccine rate and living in relative freedom

  • under 18 0 deaths
  • 18 to 29 1 deaths
  • 20 to 39 6 deaths
  • 40 to 49 11 deaths
  • 50 to 59 29 deaths
  • 60 to 69 49 deaths
  • 70 to 79 75 deaths
  • 80+ 139 deaths

if we get to 80% then

  • under 18 0 deaths
  • 18 to 29 1 deaths
  • 20 to 39 5 deaths
  • 40 to 49 8 deaths
  • 50 to 59 22 deaths
  • 60 to 69 39 deaths
  • 70 to 79 61 deaths
  • 80+ 121 deaths

if we get to 90%

  • under 18 0 deaths
  • 18 to 29 1 deaths
  • 20 to 39 3 deaths
  • 40 to 49 6 deaths
  • 50 to 59 15 deaths
  • 60 to 69 29 deaths
  • 70 to 79 47 deaths
  • 80+ 102 deaths

Take that Plank and Hendy

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