Latest NHS technical briefing

They have added a graph showing the efficacy of the various vaccines for infection, symptomatic disease, hospitalisation and mortality.

At this stage the vaccine is holding up very well for the prevention of all four of the aforementioned categories.

It gives the following statement as to how time will play out with this statistics

*Estimates of initial vaccine effectiveness in the general population after a 2-dose course. This typically applies for at least the first 3-4 months after vaccination. For some outcomes there may be waning of effectiveness beyond this point.

So this will be interesting to watch.

The delta variant continues to be extremely low on deaths for the unvaccinated with over 1,800 surviving for every death.

So whilst the vaccine stops death at a 90-99% rate I am wondering what you would say about the unvaccinated surviving at a current rate of 99.71%

Also the high infection rate in Israel is reason to keep an eye on the efficacy chart over time.

As always, these data sets bring up more questions than answers.

Is survivability up from the effects of the vaccines, or is it the Delta variant is less lethal.

The data from this technical briefing supports both hypothesis.

As always my concern is the long term health issues, which as much as everyone is at pains to say there is none, the reality is we are more than 12 months away from being able to even start to assess this.

The way I see it is a the Delta variant is more our friend more than our enemy. Fatality rates are low for both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated except for with the elderly which have always been the issue with respiratory diseases.

Best practise is avoid your fellow man if you have a runny nose, sore through, cough or are feeling unwell with any part of your respiratory system. Regardless if you are vaccinated or not.

A detailed age and comorbidity analysis of the deaths would be useful in this study, as it’s only broken into under 50 years old versus over 50. There is a big difference between a healthy 50 year old catching the Delta variant versus a frail 90 year old.

Unvaccinated under 50 year olds have a survival rate of 99.953% of the Delta variant

Match that statistic to the chances of myocarditis or clots etc is still a valid discussion that needs to be had.

Copy of report below

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