So what does the Wheel of Misfortune hold for us this week?

 

Well once again Covid seems to have escaped Auckland and this time arrived in Palmerston North.  By all accounts Covid has decided to kill itself off rather than stay in Palmy (hey I got one of my Masters there so I do love the place – it’s a joke OK) 

 

In that academic vein let’s do something to help someone I understand to be another former palmy emigrant, and lets help poor old Shaun and his Hendless (see what I did there) piffle and drivel he publishes, much of which allow us to question the validity of PHD’s in general and his specifically.

 

A quick recap.  Shauny has suggested anything from 7,000 to 80,000 Kiwis will die from Covid.  He was backed up by the arithmetical geniuses Wiles and Baker with equally terrifying numbers.  

 

Mmmmmmm. I must have misunderstood the academic process.

 

So, let’s engage in what one of my Stats Lecturers called Maori Statistics (sorry but that is true). The following tableshows Population and Deaths after 18 months of Covid of countries similar in size to NZ accepting each of the Countries have varying responses and vaccination rates. From this table of raw data we can draw unlimited conclusions and interpret the data in a myriad of ways using any number of assumptions. But it is hard to go beyond the average of around 4,000 deaths. A tragic number but given that doesn’t put Covid in the top 10 killers in NZ….. well you draw your own conclusions.

 

 

So how has he done? (Remember, I am using no academic basis for my grade here). Well, if I was grading his Stats mark I would give him a strong C- maybe. Which means he passed Drinking, could find his way from the Halls to the Dining Room and generally attended lectures, but I would strongly recommend another field of study, perhaps an Agriculture dippy.

 

If it was to promulgate and support fear-based propaganda and generally misrepresent facts, A+ all the way.  

 

You decide

Schmee

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