Which year is better?


It’s funny looking at stats pre and post vaccine but I rather look at countries that have gone with a good vaccine roll out versus very little uptake and see the comparison there.

Surely the best way to compare apples with apples even if they are a slightly different apple

When you compare countries with low vaccination rates with countries with high vaccination rates, do we really see any difference in harm from the virus itself?

South Africa is in the news again. This time for the discovery of the Onicron. Seems various countries have their name in the limelight as it suits the media. Remember India? It was the disaster waiting to happen to encourage everyone to panic. It now doesn’t get a mention even if it has reached the dizzy heights of 35% fully vaccinated.

South Africa also hasn’t had the vaccine roll out like other countries that are top of their game. The current vaccination status of South Africa is 25%.

So how are these countries doing against highly vaccinated countries that are the financial powerhouses of the world?

U.k. 3 day average is 49,028 new infections per day and 154 deaths per day

Germany’s 3 day average is 42,301 new infections per day and 232 deaths per day

India’s 3 day average is 8,787 of new infections and deaths are at 314 per day

South Africa’s 3 day average is is 18,495 up from 453 one month ago due to the Omicron. The death rate is 34 people per day.

So what can you conclude from this? It seems it depends if you are vaccinated or not as to how data is read these days.

If you are an “antivax” you will see that the vaccination status is having no effect on the number of infections or deaths.

If you are vaccinated it will be that India and South Africa are lying and so is the author of this article. Because they follow the science and they know that it’s not just the vaccine but it’s masks and social distancing.

Anyone who suggests social distancing is the key has never been to India.

Now there will be some under-reporting from India and South Africa and perhaps some over reporting from the UK and Germany. But when the hospitals in South Africa are empty it would seem it is only so underreported when they have the highly infectious Omicron right now and prior to that Delta was a nothing burger.

There are currently 404 people in ICU and 419 in High Care units in south Africa, out of a population of 40,000,000 people. Their 7 day average of new infections per day has gone from 3,797 per day on December 1st to 15,044 by the 9th (latest day of reporting. Importantly there has been 48,875 new cases in the critical 7 to 14 days ago period which is when things will start to go bad if you are unfortunate.

All up, in the past 4 weeks, we have had 151,453 new cases in an area that has 25% vaccination status and they have 823 serious cases in hospital.

What say you Stephen?

Below are the graphs as of today, data put till December 9.

You can really see the Omicron in SA.

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